This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2021-6-25, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting, as well as basic copy-edits, may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
The Covid stats were basically flat over the last week. This week averaged about 11,500 cases per day, basically even with the 11,400 of last week. New hospital admissions ran about 1832 per day, about even with the 1977 per day last week. Deaths averaged 294, close to the 274 last week.
In other words, we're about in the same place we were a week ago. So which way will things go next? Two trends are pushing in opposite directions. On the one hand, the new and faster-spreading B.1.617.2 strain of the virus continues to make up a larger and larger fraction of cases -- about 30% or so in the US right now, according to outbreak.info. On the other hand, we're down to about 85 million unvaccinated adults left, and about 1.5 million are getting vaccinated each week, so that's continuing to decrease the ability of the virus to spread.
This week, we seem to be pulled about equally between the two forces, and time will tell where things go from here. But overall, things are very good. In a bad flu season, about 600 die each day during the winter, and in a normal flu season, it's about 300. So the total burden of illness imposed by the virus right now is very close to a regular flu season.
The one thing that does keep changing is the frequency of the B.1.617.2 strain, which keeps rising each week. Some time in the next week or three, we should see it make up the majority of cases, and within a week or two after that, we'll have a better idea where things stand.
Sources
For the cases, hospital admissions, and deaths, the CDC Covid Data Tracker.
For the current state of vaccinations, see Zvi Mowshowitz.
On flu seasons, I don't have the source handy, but a bad flu season is about 60,000 deaths, a normal one 30,000, and assuming a 100-day flu season gives you roughly the 300 and 600 figures.
For the latest figures on B.1.617.2, see Outbreak.Info.
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