This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2021-4-22, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
I'm going to be camping in the woods in Indiana this weekend, far away from the internet, so I might as well run the numbers a day early. Two main ideas: (1) cases and deaths are now declining again, and (2) new vaccinations are also declining, and pretty sharply.
(1) Cases and Deaths
Cases averaged 62,595 per day this week, down from 69,613 the week before, a solid 9% decline, after rising 8% the week before. That's a fairly quick and sharp turn. New hospital admissions, which usually lag a week or two after new cases, were up 1% this week, after rising 5% the week before. If new hospital admissions keep following the case reports like they generally do, we should expect to see them falling next week, too, but time will tell.
Deaths have also started going down again: they averaged 690 per day this week, down from 708 the week before.
So it's been a very good week as far as the spread of the virus goes.
(2) Vaccinations
From December until about a week ago, give or take a few days, we spent months in a situation where vaccine production, while constantly increasing, still couldn't keep up with with the number of people who wanted shots. So the daily daily number of people getting their first shot went up, and up, and up, from 45,000 on December 14th to 1.89 million shots per day in the seven days ending April 11th.
We've turned a corner on vaccine supply now, in two different ways. First, we've vaccinated most of the people who want vaccinated: 134 million out of 256 million adults in the country, about 180 or 200 million of whom say they want to get a shot. That leaves maybe 45 to 65 million left to go, roughly. At 1.89 million shots per day, it would probably take less than a month to get all the remaining adults who want it, and a lot of those people aren't in much of a hurry.
The second way we've turned the corner is that, as of Monday this week, all 50 states have opened eligibility to all people 16 and over. The rationing is over. As we've gotten through most of the people who were especially vulnerable to the disease, or who were especially eager for a shot, we're now seeing a quick decline. From 1.89 million shots per day (seven-day rolling average) as of April 11th, we've now fallen to 1.40 million. Excess shots are starting to pile up -- we've now shipped out 282 million shots, and administered just 219 million. This gap will widen.
We can't quite say that everyone who wants a shot has gotten one yet, as some parts of the country, like Washington, still have high demand. But over the next few weeks, with a few exceptions like people who can't drive and don't realize there is widely available help to get to appointments, everyone who wants a shot will have had one.
And then we'll hit a political turning point. The people who are vaccinated will want to get on with their lives. The people who don't want to get vaccinated, for the most part, will want to get on with their lives.
And so they will.
Sources
For most data, the CDC Covid Data Tracker has the numbers.
For statistics on how many Americans want shots, just Google "vaccine poll". Depending on how exactly they phrase the question, they keep coming up with the same general answers: about 70% to 80% of people say they want the shot.
For demand still being strong in Washington, I heard that from a guy who lives in Washington. It's not scientific, but it's true.
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