This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2021-3-5, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting, as well as basic copy-edits, may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
The news is good this week.
Short version:
Long version:
(1) The main covid numbers
This week, we recorded an average of 61,292 cases per day, down from 68,053 a week ago. There are currently 42,541 people hospitalized with the virus, down from 51,112. And this week an average of 1754 died each day, down from 2093 a week ago. So everything is moving in the right direction.
(2) The next four weeks
The next four weeks or so are a bit uncertain because we're currently in the process of having the British variant of coronavirus become the major strain in the United States. About 25% of samples studied recently by the Helix Research Team have been Covid-UK, and that number has continued growing. Covid-UK is better at spreading than Covid-classic, so it is possible that in the short run this will lead to a rise in cases, like Youyang Gu thinks it will from now until about April 10th. On the other hand, we might not see a rise in cases. Vaccines are rolling out faster and faster, and the increase in immunity that results might just suppress the British variant even over the next few weeks. This is what the IHME thinks will happen: just a continued decline in cases from now until at least June.
Even if cases rise, it may be that most of the people who catch the virus going forward will be younger than in previous jumps, as we continue to vaccinate the oldest and sickest first. So we could conceivably see a rise in cases without a rise in hospitalizations or death. We'll see.
(3) Vaccination rollout
It's been the best week yet for vaccines. After the approval of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine on Friday has brought our total of approved vaccines to three, 2.1 million doses per day were injected into arms, the best week yet. The previous record was 1.7 million.
We've distributed 110 million doses so far, and the drugmakers say they're planning on having 240 million doses distributed by the end of March. We've vaccinated 56 million people so far, and by the end of the month enough vaccines are planned to ship to raise that total to 130 million. So if everything goes according to plan, that would put is at 4-5 million doses shipping per day, and about 3 million people vaccinated per day.
This 130 million is larger than it sounds. While it is true there are 330 or so million Americans, only about 260 million are old enough to be eligible for vaccination. And of those eligible, about 50% tell pollsters they're pretty eager to get vaccinated. Another 30% or so are less eager but still plant to get it done eventually, and 20% don't want it. That would come to about 130 million Americans eager to get the shot, which matches what is planned for the end of March.
In other words, we appear to be about four weeks from a situation where vaccines are available to most people who want them. Most Americans, according to recent polling, think it's going to be at least four months till most people can get the vaccine, so they're in for a pleasant surprise.
Youyang Gu projects that we'll hit the peak of our vaccinations per day around April 12th, and after that vaccinations per day will fall, not because of falling supply, but because of falling demand. If he's right, and most of the information we have suggests he's about right, then we're quickly heading to a world where no one is having trouble getting a shot -- heading there over the next five weeks or so.
(4) What's coming in May
For the state of Ohio, Governor DeWine has announced that he will lift all health orders when the number of cases per day in Ohio averages below 418 for a two-week period. If the IHME model is right, that is on track to happen about eight weeks from now. Of course, it could easily come sooner or later, given that the virus could surprise us, but right now a reasonable estimate is that the state of Ohio will return completely to normal, at least as far as the law is concerned, in the first week of May.
And by the first week of May we're also likely to be in a situation where there's nobody who wants a vaccine and can't get one, so it's going to be very difficult to ask anyone to disrupt their normal lives for the pandemic anymore.
So if you live in Ohio, it's not quite time to write it in ink, but you can go ahead and lightly pencil in a return to normal in your calendars for the first week of May. Then we'll just have to check in from time to time over the next eight weeks and see if it's there.
The federal government is currently indicating that by the end of May, there will have been enough doses shipped to vaccinate every adult in the country. However, since not every adult in the country is willing to be vaccinated, that means we must should be able to vaccinate all the willing a while before the end of May.
So May could be a very big month, but we'll have to wait and see.
Sources
The main covid numbers: Covid Tracking Project
References to Youyang Gu: covid19-projections.com
Various vaccine numbers: Bloomberg.
Current Ohio statistics: Worldometers.
Statistics on Covid-UK: Helix Research.
Vaccine production timetables: CNBC.
This page is released under the CC0 1.0 license.