This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2021-3-26, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting, as well as basic copy-edits, may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
The news this week about the coronavirus was not great. This week was not some new catastrophe, and the next few months still look bright, but the news this week was not great. Three main ideas: (1) cases have stopped falling and are inching upwards, (2) hospitalizations and deaths stayed about steady this week, and (3) the vaccination rollout is going faster than ever.
(1) Cases inching upward
This week, we averaged 58,598 cases of the coronavirus per day detected, up from 53,678 the week before. That's nothing so far near the 250,000 cases per day we were getting during the worst of it, but it's movement in the wrong direction. In the latest collection data from the My Helix Research Team, almost half of the samples they're collecting in the US have been from the B117 strain of the virus, also known as the British variant. This thing is better at spreading than old-fashioned covid, and with just 27% of the US population vaccinated (and 15% fully vaccinated) there's still plenty of people who can catch it. There has also been some relaxing of behavior out there, and that has most likely contributed.
(2) Hospitalizations and deaths
This week we averaged 1021 reported deaths per day, down from 1055 the week before. This is still progress, but not boatloads of progress. New hospitalizations averaged 4,750 per day this week, up from 4,668 per day last week. That's movement in the wrong direction.
(3) The vaccine rollout
The United States has a population of about 328 million people. 71 million people are children. With very few exceptions, the kids will be fine. This leaves about 257 million adults to consider. 90 million of those adults have now received at least one shot, and though it takes two shots and a few weeks for full-strength immunity to kick in, there's not a whole lot of room for them to get sick.
We can divide the 257 million adults into two groups. There's about 55 million seniors (65 and up), and this group has made up about 80% of Covid deaths. Of those 55 million, 71%, that 39 million, have been vaccinated, and 16 million have not. So seniors are mostly -- but by no means entirely -- covered at this point.
Of the 202 million adults who aren't seniors, 41 million have been vaccinated, or about 20%. So 80% of this group is unvaccinated, but they've made up about 20% of deaths.
All in all, once you do a little math, something like 61% of potential deaths are now off the table due to the vaccination that's gone on so far.
And the vaccine rollout is rolling along quite quickly. About 11 million people are getting their first dose each week, which removes about 7% of the remaining adults from the pool of the unvaccinated each week. The real math is complicated, but fairly simple math here suggests that virus's ability to reproduce among adults should be dropping by about 7% a week. And given how things compound in the exponential-math world of viruses, that should be enough to turn the tide and have cases dropping again within a few weeks, which is what most experts think will happen.
Another way to look at the current math of the vaccine rollout is this. About 70% of Americans say they will be getting the vaccine -- that comes to about 180 million adults. We've now got shots in the arms of 90, which leaves another ninety to go. At about 11 million new people vaccinated per week, that leaves about eight weeks to go.
Of course, it won't just be eight weeks and then a total stoppage, because even after the people eager to get a vaccine get it, there will still be a trickle of new folks.
Another way to run the math is to separate the about 20% of adults who say they'll probably get the vaccine from the 50% of adults who have already had or say they definitely will get it. These "definitelies" make up about 128 million people, meaning we'd have about 38 million to go -- or 3-4 weeks worth of people left who really want the shot and are likely to act quickly to get it.
So, most likely, at some point in April we're looking at a situation where everyone who makes it a priority is vaccinated, and then after that various people will get vaccinated in a less hurried manner.
And so it is very difficult to imagine that, by the beginning of June, there will be many people at all unable to get vaccinated who want it.
And that's how this story will end: everyone who wants the vaccine gets it, anyone who doesn't, doesn't, all likely playing out in the next month or two. And after that it is difficult to imagine anyone keeping restrictions in place very long.
Normal life is coming back, and fairly soon by the looks of it.
Sources
For most numbers, CDC Covid Data Tracker.
For B117 prevalence, My Helix Research Team.
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