This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2021-11-06, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting, as well as basic copy-edits, may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
Covid cases are up a bit this week, just about flat, but up a little: from about 71,000 cases per day last week to about 72,000 this week. Two powerful forces are pulling in opposite directions. On the one hand, there's less people capable of catching the virus each day; on the other hand, it's getting cold, and coronaviruses do best in the cold.
Deaths and hospitalizations are continuing to drop nicely: deaths from 1209 per day to 1071; hospitalizations from 5389 to 5025.
Recently the CDC started releasing weekly data that breaks down case and death rates among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. And to make things even more interesting, it breaks things down by vaccine brand. You can find this here:
If you look, for example, at the most recent peak in deaths, on the week of August 8th. That week, the rate of deaths among among the unvaccinated was 13.72 per day, compared with 3.14 for people with the J&J vaccine, 1.43 for Pfizer, and 0.73. So not only are all the vaccines still holding up for the most part, but the best vaccine is about four times better than the least good.
A little naive math would say that J & J is about 75-80% effective, Prizer almost 90%, and Moderna about 94%. But that math would be off, and for the simple reason that nearly 98% of people above 65 have now had vaccinations. So the vaccinated group is, by nature, much older and sick than the unvaccinated, who are disproportionately young and healthy. So if the great majority of seniors were vaccinated, and the rates of death for the vaccinated and unvaccinated were simply equal, even that would be a great victory for vaccines. So despite all the vague and scary headlines about waning immunity, the numbers on immunity still look very good.
Two other developments are going on that affect the vaccine scene. For one thing, the Feds have now cleared some Pfizer and Moderna users for a third shot if they want it, and cleared all J&J users for a second shot. Give that the vaccines are still holding up really well, it's not clear how much immediate effect the boosters will have. The second thing is that vaccines can now be given to children between 5 and 11. This won't save many kids, because kids almost never die of Covid, but it will help slow the spread of Covid through the general population.
At the current rate, nearly 2 million people per week are getting their first shot. A little over 1 million are achieving full vaccination each week, and about 5 booster doses are being given.
The vaccination mandates are set to roll out at large employers about January 4th, although there will no doubt be various court challenges. Even if the vaccine mandates do go into effect, they will only apply to some employers, will be coming into a world already over 80% vaccinated, will most likely come with a host of exemptions, and will only take affect about a year after the worst of Covid has been behind us.
Step by step, we are putting this thing behind us.
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