Disclaimer
I’m an interested amateur using data found at Johns Hopkins University’s coronavirus GitHub (source), which is aggregated in sometimes inconsistent ways from international sources of varying reliability.
Unless otherwise noted, all numbers I’m talking about or graphing refer to current infections, that is, they do not include people who have died or recovered by now.
The Latest
Internationally, cases continue to skyrocket, with about half of those cases in the European Union, especially in Italy, with Spain and Germany close behind. Outside Europe, the most cases are in the US, my home country, where things seem very much out of control at the moment. In addition to the lockdown of Pennsylvania I mentioned yesterday, we've now seen lockdowns of New York State, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. That makes about one quarter of the United States living in states where most business are not allowed to operate. I cannot imagine that those are the last four states that will impose these sorts of restrictions.
In Iran, the reported number of active infections is barely growing right now. In South Korea, it was looking like cases had peaked, but now there's been small upticks the last two days. Time will tell whether South Korea has got its hands around this thing. Meanwhile, cases continue to decline substantially in China.
The Graphs
Figure 1. Cases globally continue to grow rapidly.
Figure 2. When China is excluded, the story is one of uninterrupted exponential growth. The 166,734 cases currently reported make up about three times the 55,969 cases reported a week ago.
Figure 3. The 84,668 cases currently active in the E.U. make up about half of global cases, and are over triple the 26,439 cases reported a week ago.
Figure 4. Italy, with 38,549 cases, is the worst-affected country in the world right now. The infections now are over double the 14,955 cases reported a week ago.
Figure 5. Outside of Europe, the largest number of cases is in the United States. The 18,710 are about eight times the 2,120 reported a week ago.
Figure 6. Perhaps the number of infections in Iran is peaking. Time will tell.
Figure 7. Despite some recent growth, the number of cases in South Korea remains below the high from five days ago.
Figure 8. The 6,731 cases in China are about half the 13,569 reported a week ago.
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