Disclaimer
I'm not a medical professional, and have no fancy statistical abilities. These are just graphs of the reported data. I can't even vouch for the accuracy of the reported data.
Today
Today, US markets dropped about 4.5%, and the word "correction" is getting thrown around (NPR). The global tally of cases continues to drop, driven by continued large numbers of recoveries in China. However, the number of cases outside of China continues to rapidly rise. I've read about grocery stores selling out in Hawaii, though it's from a news outlet I don't recognize and I haven't seen that in mainstream outlets yet (Khon2). Anecdotally, family members in Washington are reporting some people wearing masks and some other interesting things, while here in Ohio I've seen no signs that the general public is thinking about coronavirus. Yesterday, the WHO reported for the first time that new cases in China were outnumbered by cases outside of China (Situation Report 37). Today, the WHO reported that cases in China were outnumbered by cases in South Korea (Situation Report 38).
The Graphs
Figure 1. Cases outside China continue to rise rapidly, and are currently sitting at 3.4 times the level a week ago. If that growth rate were to continue, we'd see over 2.5 billion infections by mid-May. That's just a mathematical calculation; I'm in no position to say things will turn out that way, and I hope it doesn't.
Figure 2. For the last three or four weeks, the slope of this looks pretty steady, without any obvious signs of stopping.
Figure 3. At this point, over four percent of the cumulatively recorded cases have occurred outside of China so far. Two weeks ago, it was less than one percent of cases.
Figure 4. This is the total number of cases recorded, minus the dead and recovered. It continues to drop at a healthy rate, driven by large numbers of recoveries in China.
Figure 5. This is calculated like Figure 4, except that all of China's "suspected" cases are added in. It does not show quick the same one-day "spike" as Figure 4, which occurred when China abruptly expanded the definition of what constitutes a "confirmed" case.
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