Disclaimer
I'm not a medical expert or a statistical expert. I'm just some guy making graphs, graphs no better than the data behind them.
Today
In the last day or so, the importance of the Iranian outbreak has been underscored by the appearance of new Iran-linked cases in Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kuwait, all countries with no previous confirmed cases. Still, while battling rumors of 50 deaths in one city, Iran is reporting 12 deaths and 61 cases (source). Meanwhile, the biggest source of officially reported infections is South Korea, now at over 800, up from 51 on Wednesday. And in Italy, twelve towns are locked down and over 220 cases have been reported, up from 53 on Thursday. The overall count continues to march upward at a rate of more than doubling weekly. The WHO reported 2069 cases this morning, up from 1769 yesterday.
On the other hand, China continues to see a decline, as they report more recoveries than infections each day.
The Graphs
Figure 1. The trend here is pretty self-explanatory. Cases outside of China continue to double at a rate faster than once per week. We are currently twenty-one doublings away from most of the world being infected, so it is in everyone's interest to find some way to slow this growth.
Figure 2. This is the percentage of cases in the world that have occurred outside China. The rapid increase from below 1% to over 2.5% in less than two weeks illustrates how the virus is increasingly no longer a distinctively Chinese problem. The daily new cases show this even more clearly: the latest WHO Situation Report has 300 new cases outside China, compared to 415 inside China.
Figure 3. This is the number of confirmed infections, minus dead and recovered cases, yielding a measure of how many people are known to be actively infected. It continues to fall as Chinese recoveries outnumber both Chinese and non-Chinese new cases.
Figure 4. This is the same as Figure 3, except that it also adds the number of suspected infections. This graph suffers less distortion from the artificial "spike" that occurred February 12th when the Chinese government changed its definition of "confirmed". However, it tells a similar story to Figure 3.
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