This was originally a Facebook post of mine from 2020-12-5, and is archived here as a curiosity. Minor changes to formatting, as well as basic copy-edits, may have been made in the transition from Facebook post to web format.
It is the best of times; it is the worst of times. Bad news first.
Most coronaviruses spread best in the winter, and this one is no exception. At 2,000-ish deaths per day, it's the leading cause of death again in the US, like it was briefly in the spring. The way things are going, within a month we'll likely be around 3,000[1] deaths per day, higher than spring by about 1,000 per day.
Still, some things are progressing. Most likely, at least two vaccines will achieve final approval next week. This will be followed by massive and rapid shipments of vaccines to healthcare workers, nursing home residents, and then the general population. In Ohio, that means 98,000 doses December 15th, 330,000 doses December 22nd, and 240,000 more before January 1st. That should be enough to cover the nursing home residents, who make up 50% of coronavirus deaths, and healthcare workers.
The rest should follow quickly. Mancef Slaoui, who is heading the government's vaccine drive, estimates that 200 million doses could be available by May.
The IHME is estimating that deaths will peak about January 10th,[2] and then continue to fall from then on as natural population immunity and the increasing number of vaccinations make it harder and harder for the virus to find new victims.
So, if we can each do whatever we can to avoid killing an old person or someone with health problems over the next month or two, after that we should see things improving rapidly.
Starting with next week's vaccine approvals, we should have some good news of one kind or another to report every week until this whole disaster has come to an end.
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